Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan

Russia-Ukraine Geopolitical Crisis Indirect Effects on Indonesia's Financial System Stability

2024-08-10T13:51:23+07:00

The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical crisis that has occurred since February 2022 is known to have resulted in a surge in food and energy prices at the global level. The escalation of the situation has expanded to cause the Fed to respond by raising the benchmark interest rate. The interest rate hike is caused by high inflation, which reduces the purchasing power of the domestic community. Financial system stability in Indonesia is essential, considering that US monetary policy is still the mecca of the country's economy. In addition, the dollar currency is still the primary means of payment in international trade. This study was conducted to analyze whether this geopolitical crisis indirectly influences Indonesia's financial system stability. The research method used to examine is the Error Correction Model (ECM). The study results show that the interest rates of the US, JCI, Money Supply, and government bonds significantly affect the short and long term. Meanwhile, inflation variables only have a significant effect in the long term. This research has policy implications where synergy resilience is needed to maintain proactive and holistic risk management in systemic. It also evaluates potential dangers and develops methods to reduce NPL to maintain stability and sustainability during changes in change and interactions between institutions included in the Financial System Stability Committee.

Asean Economic Dynamics: An Analysis of The Impact of Trade Openness, Foreign Direct Investment, and Export on Economic Growth

2024-06-16T12:17:42+07:00

This study aims to explain economic growth in ASEAN countries. The variables that affect the economic growth rate are trade openness, foreign direct investment, and exports. This study uses secondary data from the World Bank and UNCTAD. The data is annual data from 2018-2022. The analytical tool used is the Vector Error Corrections Model (VECM), which uses a unit root test, optimal lag test, cointegration test, and VECM model. The results show that trade openness, FDI, and exports affect economic growth in the short-term analysis, but FDI and exports hurt economic growth. In the long run, the results of this study indicate that trade openness does not affect economic growth. At the same time, FDI significantly affects economic growth in ASEAN countries, and exports do not affect economic growth in 2018- 2022.

Economic, Environment, and Social Welfare in the Mineral Economy Provinces of Eastern Indonesia

2024-07-08T18:46:46+07:00

This study explores the relationships between economic growth, environmental quality, and social welfare in the mineral economy provinces of Eastern Indonesia, which are heavily dependent on the mining sector—using simultaneous equation models and secondary data from 2015–2022. Empirical results show a bidirectional causal relationship between EQI and HDI, suggesting that improvements in environmental quality enhance human development, and higher human development levels contribute to better environmental quality. Additionally, a unidirectional causal relationship between EQI and GDP indicates that improvements in environmental quality can lead to economic growth. Still, economic growth alone does not necessarily lead to improvements in environmental quality.

Measuring the Ability of Poverty Alleviation Programs in Reducing Rural Poverty Levels in Eastern Indonesia

2024-09-01T10:24:08+07:00

Poverty is still a problem in many developing countries, including Indonesia, especially in eastern Indonesia, such as East Nusa Tenggara, Maluku, West Papua, and Papua. Based on Statistic Indonesia data, the poverty rate in the east of Indonesia shows a downward trend but is still well above the national average. This raises questions about the achievements of poverty alleviation programs. To overcome this problem, the government has created several programs to alleviate poverty. These programs include increasing social assistance, improving access to essential services, empowering communities, and promoting inclusive development. This study aims to measure the ability of poverty alleviation programs to reduce poverty levels in Eastern Indonesia. This study uses the Blundell-Bond System GMM (Sys-GMM) analysis technique to measure these programs' short-run and long-run effects. This study used secondary data from official institutions such as Statistics Indonesia and the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia. The data collected includes the government budget for social assistance, average years of schooling, life expectancy, human development index, and Gini ratio. Based on the results obtained in this study during the research period from 2010 to 2022, it shows that (1) the government budget in the field of social protection as a proxy for social assistance programs has no significant effect on poverty, (2) the average length of schooling as a proxy for programs to improve access to essential services in the field of education has no effect on poverty, (3) life expectancy as a proxy for programs to improve essential services in the health sector significantly reduces poverty, community empowerment programs and inclusive development proxied by (4) the human development index has no significant effect on poverty, and (5) the Gini ratio has a significant effect on poverty.