The Impact of Fuel Prices Increasing on Inflation in South Sulawesi using Pulse Function Intervention Analysis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22219/jep.v21i02.23202Keywords:
intervention model, pulse function, ARIMA, input variableAbstract
South Sulawesi Province is considered capable of controlling inflation, as seen from its not very large volatility. However, this does not mean that the increase in fuel prices does not impact inflation in South Sulawesi. This study aims to obtain the best model to analyze the impact of rising fuel prices on inflation in South Sulawesi using Pulse Function Intervention Analysis and to find out how significant the impact of rising fuel prices on inflation in South Sulawesi is. The data in this study were obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of South Sulawesi Province, namely the monthly inflation of South Sulawesi Province for the period January 2014 – September 2022, with a total of 105 observations. The best model in this study is the MA ([12]) bbm1, bbm5, and bbm6 models with AIC 104.09. Statistical test results show that 3 of 6 times increases in fuel prices since 2014 still influence the rising inflation, namely in November 2014, April 2022, and September 2022. The increase in fuel prices in 2014 impacted rising inflation by 1.97 percent, while in 2022, it increased inflation by 0.92 and 0.99 percent.
Downloads
References
BI. (2020, September 21). Inflasi. Bank Indonesia. https://www.bi.go.id/id/fungsi-utama/moneter/inflasi/default.aspx
BPS. (2022, September 21). Inflasi. Badan Pusat Statistik. https://www.bps.go.id/subject/3/inflasi.html#subjekViewTab1
Damayanti, S., & Yosmar, S. (2021). Model Intervensi Fungsi Step Untuk Peramalan Harga Saham Pt. Garuda Indonesia (Persero) Tbk Di Masa Pandemi Covid-19. Jurnal Riset Dan Aplikasi Matematika, 5(1), 10–18. https://doi.org/10.26740/jram.v5n1
Ekayanti, R., Mara, M. N., & Sulistianingsih, E. (2014). Analisis Model Intervensi Fungsi Step untuk Peramalan Kenaikan Tarif Dasar Listrik (TDL) Terhadap Besarnya Pemakaian Listrik. Buletin Ilmiah Mat. Stat. Dan Terapannya (Bimaster), 03(3), 175–184. http://dx.doi.org/10.26418/bbimst.v3i03.7353
Jejak Kenaikan Harga BBM. (2022, September 3). Jejak Kenaikan Harga BBM di Era Pemerintahan Jokowi. Kompas.Com.
Montgomery, D. C., Jennings, C. L., & Kulahci, M. (2008). Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting. John Wiley & Sons.
Pusposari, L. F. (2016). Pengaruh Harga BBM Terhadap Inflasi Di Jawa Timur. J-PIPS, Vol. 3, 1, 47–67. https://doi.org/10.18860/jpips.v3i1.6854
Rauf, R. A., Lamusa, A., Bahri, S., Laihi, M. A. A., & Effendy, E. (2020). Model Peramalan Inflasi Bahan Makanan Primer dengan Pendekatan Box-Jenkins: Studi kasus di Kota Palu. AGRIEKONOMIKA, 9(1), 16–27. https://doi.org/10.21107/agriekonomika.v9i1.6440
Sadewo, E. (2013). Pemodelan Inflasi Provinsi Riau Menggunakan ARIMA Dengan Deteksi Outlier dan Model Intervensi. ResearchGate, January 2013, 1–10. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.11823.12963
Sejarah Harga BBM. (2022, August 29). Sejarah Harga BBM Naik: Dari Masa Soekarno Hingga Jokowi. Timesindonesia.Co.Id.
Sumantria, F., & Latifah, U. (2019). The Influence of Interest Rate, Money Circulation, Inflation, and CPI Against Export And Import in Indonesia 2012-2018. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan (JEP), 17(02), 108–118. https://doi.org/10.22219/jep.v17i2.10242
Wei, W. W. S. (2006). Time Series Analysis Univariate and Multivariate Methods (Second Edition). Pearson Education.
Zhang, Y., Wu, P., Shan, B., Pan, T., Chen, W., Yan, T., Zeng, M., Lin, Y., & Qiu, L. (2019). Research on Intervention Analysis Model of Medium-to-long-term Electric Power Substitution Policy. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 252(3), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/252/3/032080
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2022 Desy Wasani,Nucke Widowati Kusumo Projo
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan (JEP) agree to the following terms:
- For all articles published in Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan (JEP), copyright is retained by the authors. Authors permit the publisher to announce the work with conditions. When the manuscript is accepted for publication, the authors agree to the publishing right's automatic transfer to the publisher.
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors can enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) before and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges and earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
