Analisis Kausalitas Antara Korupsi, Investasi, Pengangguran dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22219/jie.v7i03.27044Keywords:
Corruption, Investment, Unemployment, Economic Growth, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)Abstract
This study analyzes the causality and short-term and long-term relationships between corruption, investment, unemployment, and per capita economic growth in twenty-two Asia-Pacific countries from 2012 to 2020. This study uses the Granger causality approach and the Vector Error Correction Model to answer the problem in this study. The empirical results show that corruption and per capita economic growth has a two-way causality, and the unemployment rate and per capita economic growth only have a one-way causality. On the other hand, the rest have no causal relationship. In the short term, corruption does not significantly affect per capita economic growth and unemployment. However, significant and negative in influencing the level of investment. Meanwhile, in the long term, corruption significantly and negatively affects economic growth per capita. The level of investment and unemployment has a significant and positive effect on economic growth per capita. Therefore, corruption is an obstacle to economic growth and not a "lubricant."
Studi ini menganalisis kausalitas dan hubungan jangka pendek dan jangka panjang antara korupsi, investasi, pengangguran, dan pertumbuhan ekonomi per kapita di dua puluh dua negara Asia-Pasifik dari tahun 2012 hingga 2020. Studi ini menggunakan pendekatan kausalitas Granger dan Vector Error Correction Model untuk menjawab permasalahan dalam penelitian ini. Hasil empiris menunjukkan bahwa korupsi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi per kapita memiliki kausalitas dua arah, sedangkan tingkat pengangguran dan pertumbuhan ekonomi per kapita hanya memiliki kausalitas satu arah. Di sisi lain, sisanya tidak memiliki hubungan sebab akibat. Dalam jangka pendek, korupsi tidak secara signifikan mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi per kapita dan pengangguran. Namun, signifikan dan negatif dalam mempengaruhi tingkat investasi. Sementara itu, dalam jangka panjang, korupsi secara signifikan dan negatif mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi per kapita. Tingkat investasi dan pengangguran berpengaruh signifikan dan positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi per kapita. Oleh karena itu, korupsi merupakan penghambat pertumbuhan ekonomi dan bukan "pelumas".
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